Kirk Watson at his election night watch party (Photo by Jana Birchum)

Kirk Watson has declared victory in Austin’s mayoral race following the count of outstanding votes in Travis and Williamson counties this week. The incumbent appears to have won the election outright, avoiding a runoff in the five-way race, by less than two dozen votes.

But Carmen Llanes Pulido, the second place finisher, has not yet conceded defeat. She told the Chronicle that Williamson County still has votes to count today and she is waiting for those results before deciding if she will concede or challenge the results through a recount or in court.

“Given that results are unofficial at this point, and the margin is so small, I am waiting to see an official tally from the three counties to declare a position,” Llanes Pulido said in a statement. “We owe it to Austinites who have made it clear that they want new and accountable leadership, to ensure that every single vote is accurately counted and every voice is heard.”

As of now, then, Watson has won a narrow victory that he is selling to supporters as a much more commanding win. “I’m grateful to have been re-elected to serve a full four-year term in the mayor’s office,” Watson wrote in an email to supporters last night. “I’m also proud to have won by a margin of more than 104,000 votes.”

It’s true that that Watson took in about that many more votes than Llanes Pulido, but the metric both campaigns have been tracking since election night, Nov. 5, was “50% + 1” – that’s the threshold candidates in races with more than two candidates have to clear to avoid a runoff. By that metric, Watson has just squeaked by – clearing 50% of the total Austin vote (across Travis, Williamson, and Hays counties) by less than a tenth of a percent.

Still, Watson fending off four opponents – by whatever margin – to avoid a runoff is an impressive feat. Especially among a presidential electorate that is likely to have contained higher numbers of young, racially and economically diverse voters – the kind of voters who have, historically, preferred the demographics of some of his challengers (two women and an openly gay man).

Avoiding a runoff is not just important to the Watson campaign because it reflects a more decisive victory. It also prevents the mayor from having to campaign for re-election following Donald Trump’s commanding presidential victory – which could be a unfavorable electoral environment for Watson.

The mayor is a stalwart Democrat, but he is certainly more conservative than Llanes Pulido on most issues and her runoff campaign would emphasize those differences. That dynamic helped sweep District 10 Council Member Alison Alter into office in 2016 – she ran a December runoff against Sherri Gallo, who was perceived by voters to be a Republican.